新发展阶段与建立现代财税体制*

本文基于我国即将进入全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的新发展阶段，回顾了党的十八大以来的财税改革经验，锚定“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标，研究了新发展阶段对深化财税体制改革的要求，从深化预算体制改革、理顺央地财政关系、提升现代税收治理、健全债务管理制度、推进财税法治建设五个方面把握中国特色现代财税体制发展，持续为建立现代财税体制提供理论佐证。     

The role of economic structural factors in determining pandemic mortality rates: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in France

Among the majority of research on individual factors leading to coronavirus mortality, age has been identified as a dominant factor. Health and other individual factors including gender, comorbidity, ethnicity and obesity have also been identified by other studies. In contrast, we examine the role of economic structural factors on COVID-19 mortality rates. Particularly, focusing on a densely populated region of France, we document evidence that higher economic “precariousness indicators” such as unemployment and poverty rates, lack of formal education and housing are important factors in determining COVID-19 mortality rates. Our study will help inform policy makers regarding the role of economic factors in managing pandemics.     

基于西门子PLC除尘器粉尘防爆危险源信号检测及预警系统的研究

研发适用于滤袋式除尘器粉尘爆炸危险源信号的实时检测及预警系统。该系统综合应用工业控制、PLC控制、智能测控终端无线传输、云平台数据管理等技术。采用传感器分别监测除尘器运行时的进出风口压差、除尘器运行状态、高压脉冲喷吹压力和箱体温度。当监测信号不在系统预设的合理范围时,PLC输出就地预警信号,监测信号也可通过无线传输模块上传到云平台。运用云平台的数据分析功能,实现除尘器运行状态系统化监测和综合管理。     

Aggregate and distributional impacts of China’s household responsibility system

It is 40 years since China started to abandon collective farming, with initial rural reforms in 1978 that culminated in adoption of the household responsibility system (HRS). Existing studies of impacts of these reforms do not consider nonrandom spread of the HRS, spillovers from early adopters, or distributional effects. In this paper, the synthetic control method and spatial autoregressive panel models with autoregressive errors are used to estimate impacts of the HRS that account for these features. The HRS had a significant positive effect on grain output and food supply in China, while also helping to reduce regional inequality.     

Agricultural holdings with undefined boundaries,communal systems and counter‐hegemonies: The persistence of the peasantry in Argentina

The presence of agricultural holdings with undefined boundaries (AHUBs) and their heterogeneous geographical distribution questions the supposed hegemony of agribusiness in Argentina. Given the lack of defined boundaries, these holdings generate a communal culture among dwellers, which is reflected in both the strategies of the use of commons and the initiatives for the defence of land in the conflicts between peasants and entrepreneurs. This article describes two counter‐enclosure experiences that were generated and have developed on the bedrock of AHUBs and a communal matrix. Those defence strategies are employed by families that possess the land but have not title to it, being a defence tactic against attempts of eviction. AHUB not only is a new census category that allows us to enhance our knowledge of the rural world but also proposes modes of production that differ from those of the capitalist model, showing possible counter‐hegemonic development alternatives that arise from the practices used in these holdings.     

基于系统动力学的区域林业碳汇市场中三方主体利益行为演化博弈分析

分析影响三者策略行为的作用因素,构建区域林业碳汇市场的演化博弈模型。在此基础上,结合系统动力学理论,对广东省的碳汇发展状况进行仿真模拟,找出影响市场均衡发展的关键因素。结果表明:政府部门趋向于选择投入策略,其中提高市场碳交易额对拉动市场需求有显著影响,而增强对林农碳汇林的补贴力度难以解决市场当前供需问题。     

生态文明建设目标行动导向下的现代化经济体系研究

党的十九大报告首次提出“建设现代化经济体系”,把建立健全绿色低碳循环发展作为重点任务之一。作为中国特色社会主义“五位一体”总体战略布局的重要组成部分,生态文明建设是现代化经济体系建设的行动指引,要求破解资源环境约束,提升绿色竞争力,与全球绿色低碳可持续发展目标契合。论文建立了生态文明目标行动导向下的现代化经济体系建设的逻辑分析框架,提出了实践路径。具体来说,就是以生态安全为底线,以新旧动能转换为目标,以绿色低碳循环发展为特征,以生态与产业融合、制造业转型升级、清洁能源体系、绿色消费模式为核心内容,以绿色金融、考核评估和绿色技术创新为驱动力,以生态环境治理体系和治理能力现代化为保障。     

IPO制度改革、盈余管理与IPO定价效率

以1993~2015年我国A股IPO公司为样本，检验了我国资本市场IPO制度的渐进式改革对IPO定价效率的作用，并进一步研究了盈余管理在两者作用过程中的中介作用。研究结果发现，除额度管理到指标管理阶段改革没有对IPO定价效率产生显著影响外，其他各阶段改革均有效提高了短窗口期的IPO定价效率，并且IPO公司的盈余管理在这一过程中起到了显著的中介作用。此外，进一步研究还发现IPO制度改革降低了中长期窗口的IPO定价效率，并且IPO制度改革在不同市场化程度的地区和牛熊市期间对IPO定价效率的作用并不相同。研究结论为IPO注册制改革过程中加强对IPO公司盈余管理的监管提供了参考依据。     

旅游业—城市化—经济—交通复合系统的耦合协同演化机制 ——以云南省为例

基于云南省16个州(市)的面板数据,运用ArcGIS空间分析、耦合协调度模型等研究方法,从时空视角对云南省旅游业-城市化-经济-交通四个系统的发展水平及其耦合协调发展状况进行了整体评价。结果显示:云南省旅游业、城市化、经济、交通发展水平整体分别提升了48.15%、47.59%、35.91%、46.89%。2005~2017年,云南省各州(市)旅游业-城市化-经济-交通复合系统的耦合协调度呈上升趋势,但87.50%的州(市)仍处于中度耦合失调水平,且空间分异特征显著,形成以昆明为核心的"核心-边缘"梯度递减的空间结构特征,整体呈滇中>滇东南>滇西南>滇西北>滇东北>滇西的空间分布格局。     

Don't call us,we'll call you: Considering cognitive and physical effort in designing effective response systems to manage extended in-process wait

People must often wait for days or weeks to receive test results, price quotes, products, etc. Service providers may manage user experience during such in-process waits using notification systems that inform users when a response is available or inquiry systems that require users to inquire about response availability, thereby imposing prospective memory requirements on users. Based on the prospective memory and wait time literature, we make predictions regarding how response system (notification vs. inquiry) moderates the effects of waits that are shorter or longer than the provider promised on user evaluation of the wait. We find that users of a notification system evaluate a wait more positively and are less sensitive to deviations of actual from promised wait time than are users of an inquiry system. This advantage was more pronounced for a wait that was longer (vs. shorter) than promised. These effects of system and expectation on evaluation were fully mediated by their impact on the cognitive and physical effort of navigating the system. Finally, a week after having experienced a wait, users of an inquiry system who had waited longer (vs. shorter) than promised cooperated less on a follow-up task, highlighting another downside of using an inquiry system.